PREDICT

PREDICT

ImPRovements in atmospheric dispErsion moDellIng and proteCTive action strategies in case of nuclear detonations

Project news

PIANOFORTE projects at NERIS workshop 2024
11.11.2024
Projects RRADEW, CITISTRA and PREDICT were presented at NERIS Workshop in the Aurelia Congress Center, Rome, Italy on 11th November 2024.
NERIS workshop 2024
1.11.2024
Workshop of NERIS platform will take place in Rome on 11th November 2024.
Data Management Plan of PREDICT project
22.8.2024
Data Management Plan of PREDICT research project is delivered.
PIANOFORTE sessions at 10th RICOMET international conference
14.6.2024
At the RICOMET conference held on 10 and 11 June 2024 in Ljubljana, Slovenia, two sessions were devoted to PIANOFORTE.

Project objectives and goals:

The present risk assessment and risk management knowledge of civilian emergency planning organisations concerning radiological consequences of nuclear fallout is still limited. This project aims at filling in significant gaps and improving upon current radiological assessment and decision-aiding technological capabilities. Since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, there has been ongoing concern over the threatened use of tactical nuclear weapons. In such an event, radiation protection of the public should focus on the fallout zone, where urgent protective actions could significantly help reduce health impacts.

Several European countries have already undertaken assessments of the radiological impacts of nuclear detonations and this project will build on that work, further extending technical capabilities. PREDICT aims to enable the major internationally used decision support systems JRODOS and ARGOS and other nationally used atmospheric dispersion and transport codes and follow-on foodchain models to simulate and predict consequences due to the fallout of a nuclear detonation in Europe or worldwide. A key aspect will be the description of the blast cloud which is complex due to its height, the large number of radionuclides (most short-lived) and variety of particle sizes produced. Using a range of source terms and weather conditions, results from different Partner assessment models will be compared and the uncertainties better understood. Recommendations will be made to improve dose modelling and computing run times.

Existing advice on responding to nuclear power plant accidents will be adapted, and public protection strategies will be reviewed and improved ways of communicating these to the public will be developed. A key outcome will be harmonising the technical means of decision-making following a nuclear detonation event at the European level as well as considering social, ethical and communication aspects. There will be pro-active engagement with decision-makers and other stakeholders to ensure that the information arising from the assessment models will apply a holistic understanding of the event consequences enabling them to better understand the risks and thereby improving the protection of the public from harm.

Project coordinator

Clemens WODA, BfS, Germany

Project partners

Federal Office for Radiation Protection
Danish Emergency Management Agency, governmental agency under MINISTRY OF DEFENCE
Technical University of Denmark
Norwegian Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority
Environmental Protection Agency
Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf EV
Germany
Denmark
Denmark
Norway
Ireland
Germany



Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Norwegian University of Life Sciences
PDC-ARGOS ApS
National Institute for Public Health and the Environment
Swedish Radiation Safety Authority
Department of Health
Germany
Norway
Denmark
Netherlands
Sweden
United Kingdom



Met Office
United Kingdom